Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Why we overpaid for Gomez and Drury...

Chris Drury

06-07: Buffalo, 77 games, 37 goals, 32 assists, 69 points, +1
05-06: Buffalo, 81 games, 30 goals, 37 assists, 67 points, +11
03-04: Buffalo, 76 games, 18 goals, 35 assists, 53 points, +8
02-03: Calgary, 80 games, 23 goals, 30 assists, 53 points, -9
01-02: Colorado, 82 games, 21 goals, 25 assists, 46 points, +1
00-01: Colorado, 71 games, 24 goals, 41 assists, 65 points, +6
99-00: Colorado, 82 games, 20 goals, 47 assists, 67 points, +8
98-99: Colorado, 79 games, 20 goals, 24 assists, 44 points, +9


It is safe to say that Drury is as consistent as you can get as an NHL player, especially considering that this is his 4th NHL team in nine seasons. It is also clear that he is a playmaker and has increased his goal scoring ability over his career. His consistent positive plus-minus (besides his one season in Calgary) also shows that he is a solid two-way centerman who can take care of things in this own end. He appears to be the ideal #2 centerman who can check the other team's top offensive line.
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Scott Gomez

06-07: NJ, 72 games, 13 goals, 47 assists, 60 points, +7
05-06: NJ, 82 games, 33 goals, 51 assists, 84 points, +8
03-04: NJ, 80 games, 14 goals, 56 assists, 70 points, +18
02-03: NJ, 80 games, 13 goals, 42 assists, 55 points, +17
01-02: NJ, 76 games, 10 goals, 38 assists, 48 points, -1
00-01: NJ, 76 games, 14 goals, 49 assists, 63 points, -4
99-00: NJ, 82 games, 19 goals, 51 assists, 70 points, +14


To me, Gomez is a completely different story. His point totals are very inconsistent year-to-year and he has only scored more then 19 goals once (33 in 05-06). It appears that Sather signed this guy to be the team's #1 center with Jagr on his wing, yet Gomez has only showed first line scoring ability in one season of his career (once again, 05-06). His plus-minus is definitely impressive, but I would expect that considering that the Devils have been trapping their opponents to death for a very long time. But, to be honest, has Gomez every played with a player the caliber of Jagr? Clearly he hasn't. So, although Gomez appears to be a #2 centerman stats-wise, we won't know until he actually plays with Jagr, whether he will succeed.
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So basically, Sather gave out two very long 7+ million dollar contracts that are basically ironclad due to no movement/trade clauses (or a variation of)... to two players that appear to be second-line centerman. So lets talk about why Sather did this. Much like what I talked about in the salary cap post, (http://blue-review.blogspot.com/2007/08/rangers-cap-situation.html) this team is only one year away from having quite a makeover. The team's main core of players, Jagr (option year), Shanny, Straka, Avery, and almost the entire defense, are all most likely going to be free agents next year. Even if a few important players sign up for just one more Cup run, that will only push off the inevitable... this team will go from Jagr's team to starting all over again with youth. And that is why Sather signed Gomez (age 27) and Drury (age 30). It meant that we now are set up the middle (at center) for the next 5+ years, which is pretty much the most important position other than goaltender (which we also happen to be set at with Henrik). Did Sather have to overpay to do it? Yeah. Should he have overpaid? We will find out.

2 comments:

Dennis said...

Zen, I like what you've got going here.
Neither Sather nor Renny have come out and said who will play with Jagr. Wouldn't be a safer bet to place Drury on the front line. Jagr needs a consistent center.
Also, Jagr will be firing in from his usual spots; Drury has the grit to pick up those rebounds. Gomez has been known to get crushed in those situations.
Why not place Gomez in the position he played in Jersey, setting up the play and making those big passes.
Now I understand that this changes the popular view of who will play where, but for some reason this makes the most sense to me now.

As for why, well I think this gives Renny the ability to build our young talent around Drury and Gomez. Next yr will be a wonderful time to pick up some more super talented UFA (Heatly - Spezza)
We've been in need to talent that will stick around long enough for the building process to take effect. Which seems to be about 2-4 yrs to see those differences take effect. With the exception of a very deep defensive talent, there are players in Harford today "almost" ready to replace, Straka, and Shanny. The leadership roles will just change to Gomez, Drury and Avery (if he'll stay)
Jagr might not want to play two more seasons, so in steps Chereponov. Or Korpikoski, Dupont, Pyatt, Bourret, I don't know really, but one of them will fill some kind of position. And the building of young talent continues.
There is a great story on outsidethegarden.com on Prucha's numbers, ice time and over all abilities.
Check it out if you haven't already.

ZENmaster said...

Thanks for the support Dennis. Gomez is linked to being Jagr's center, because he is the big playmaker and is the most similar to Nylander. All along I thought that Gomez would be an ideal fit with Shanahan. I was actually hoping that the team resigned Nylander and picked up just Gomez for the second line. IMO, it would be ideal if Drury centered Jagr, but I am still very concerned about chemistry between them.